Why did China test-fire an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean and what are the likely implications?

SINGAPORE: A flexing of military might to the world amid heightened geopolitical tensions, while simultaneously boosting the morale of a scandal-hit elite military branch – that’s what analysts say were the driving factors behind China test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean.
Conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, the rare publicised test launch took place on Wed (Sep 25) morning. The Chinese defence ministry said the missile carried a dummy warhead, and “fell into expected sea areas”.
While the ministry stated that it was a “routine arrangement in our annual training plan” and not directed at any country or target, the development quickly made global headlines as news outlets pointed out how it was the first such test in decades.
Analysts told CNA the launch is a calculated move by an increasingly assertive Beijing to showcase its strategic deterrence capabilities and military modernisation – especially as it locks heads with rival superpower the United States in an increasing number of areas, and as tensions over Taiwan loom ever larger.
“China has conducted missile tests on land, and some observers argue that scientifically speaking, this is sufficient to gather the necessary data points, making open-water tests unnecessary,” Dr Bernard Loo, a senior fellow at the Military Studies Programme of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, told CNA.
“If that is the case, then the purpose of the latest test is not ‘let’s make this thing work’, but ‘hey guys, see what I’ve got’.” 
At the same time, observers say there is a clear domestic objective to the ICBM test – for China to showcase the Rocket Force’s readiness for offensive operations, despite scandals over the past two years that have marred the elite unit which oversees the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Regardless of Beijing’s intent, analysts agree that the move risks stoking further tensions with the West, as well as in a region that already views the world’s second-largest economy with varying levels of distrust.
“The current relationship between Beijing and (Washington) is clearly not very good, with all kinds of technological sanctions that the Americans have slapped on China. (The ICBM launch) is, I think, a message to the US: ‘You know what, we are still modernising our ballistic missile forces, amid all your attempts at stifling our technological progress,’” said Dr Loo.
Wednesday’s launch is believed to be the first time in 44 years that China has launched an ICBM into international waters. The last known test took place on May 21, 1980, when a DF-5 – China’s first ICBM – travelled over 9,000km before landing in the South Pacific. 
China rarely fires long-range missiles into the sea, preferring instead to conduct unannounced tests over its own territory, particularly in remote provinces like Inner Mongolia, analysts have said.
Some online trackers noted the launch of the missile from Hainan on Wednesday rather than from an inland silo, meaning it was most likely a test of China’s growing number of road-mobile long-range missiles, according to a Reuters report.
That Beijing chose to test-fire an ICBM is particularly significant, Dr Loo noted.
“Ballistic missiles are crucial for China because they represent the primary means through which the country can deliver its nuclear payload. More than bombers or submarine-launched missiles, ICBMs are the defining factor in China’s strategic capabilities,” he said.
The launch comes amid an escalating Sino-West rivalry, and as Beijing grows increasingly assertive – particularly in Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea, noted Dr Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at Japanese think tank Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. 
“In recent years, Beijing has intensified its military presence in these areas, reinforcing its territorial claims and challenging international norms. I see the latest ICBM test as part of this trend,” he told CNA.
While the range of an ICBM “far exceeds what is necessary” to target Taiwan, the test still serves as a demonstration of China’s intentions regarding the self-ruled island, said Mr Drew Thompson, a former US Department of Defense official. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out retaking it by force.
An ICBM usually has a range greater than 5,500km and is typically designed to carry nuclear warheads. For perspective, the Taiwan Strait is 128km at its narrowest point between mainland China and Taiwan.
“Such long-range missiles are part of a strategic capability that is intended to prevent the US from intervening (in any conflict with Taiwan) … while also showing that it has the means to hold the US homeland at risk,” said Mr Thompson, who was a director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the US defence department.
“It’s part of a whole ability to conduct and enforce a blockade around Taiwan, which they (China) reportedly practised doing for the last couple of years,” he told CNA.
While China did not identify the ICBM tested on Wednesday, the latest iteration it is known to have is the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41), unveiled in 2019 during celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the PRC. With an estimated operational range of 12,000km to 15,000km, the DF-41 would be capable of reaching the US mainland.
Dr Newsham from the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies described testing an ICBM at this juncture as a “slap in the face” for the US, particularly given Washington’s repeated calls for reduced tensions over contentious issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
“In many ways, Beijing’s missile launch is reminiscent of North Korea’s provocations; it serves not just military testing purposes but also aims to create psychological deterrence and convey a powerful message,” he said. 
During Taiwanese President William Lai’s inauguration on May 20, Washington urged Beijing to “act with restraint and avoid using Taiwan’s transition as a pretext for provocative or coercive actions”.
China has frequently deployed aircraft and vessels past the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which once served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides. It’s accused the US of “interfering in its domestic affairs” following a series of US arms sales to the island.
On the South China Sea issue, the US, during a high-level military meeting this month, urged China to “reconsider its use of dangerous, coercive, and potentially escalatory tactics in the region and beyond”.
In response, Beijing has consistently asserted that it is merely defending its rights in the contested waters.
Some observers have noted that the timing could be calculated to give Beijing leverage ahead of a call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The White House said in late August that both leaders would speak “in the coming weeks”. This would be the leaders’ second phone call since their in-person meeting in California in November 2023.
“They are signalling that China has the capability to hit US territory with nuclear weapons,” Taiwanese PLA expert Lin Ying-yu told the Financial Times. “This show of force could be intended to give them more bargaining power in the upcoming call between Xi and Biden.”
Dr Loo from RSIS asserts that the latest launch reflects China’s intent to signal its advancing military prowess. 
“The timing of the test (is significant), as it serves not only as a demonstration of China’s strategic deterrence but also as a message to the global community that it is continuing to modernise its military capabilities,” he said.
President Xi Jinping has set several milestones for China’s armed forces to meet in the coming years and decades. By 2035, the military should have achieved modernisation – essentially bringing its prowess and capabilities up to speed with the technology of the day. By mid-century, it should be capable of fighting and winning wars.
The test comes barely a week before China marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on Oct 1. 
When asked if this could be a factor, Dr Loo said it was possible.
Beijing has been ramping up its nuclear development and hiking defence spending in recent years, with the Pentagon warning in October last year that the Chinese arsenal was expanding faster than it expected.
As of May 2023, China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is projected to surpass 1,000 by 2030, according to a Pentagon report released last year.
That compares to 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed by the US and Russia respectively. The Pentagon has said that by 2030, much of Beijing’s weapons will likely be held at higher readiness levels.
Since carrying out its first nuclear detonation in 1964, Beijing has repeatedly committed to a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy. China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain this stance.
Analysts CNA spoke to also note a domestic dimension to the ICBM test. They say it aims to bolster the morale of the PLA’s Rocket Force – whose top leaders have been toppled amid anti-graft purges – as well as the wider armed forces.
The Rocket Force, which carried out the launch, oversees China’s conventional and nuclear missiles. It has been tasked with modernising China’s nuclear forces in the face of developments such as the US improving its missile defences and surveillance capabilities, and strengthening alliances.
It is under the direct command of the Central Military Commission, the top military command body in China’s political hierarchy that’s chaired by President Xi.
“The PLA Rocket Force has come under scrutiny in recent years due to corruption allegations among its leadership, leading some observers to question its capabilities,” said Dr Chang Ching, a research fellow at the Taipei-based Society for Strategic Studies.
“By successfully conducting a long-range missile test, the unit aims to reassure its political masters that its overall operational capacity remains intact despite these recent challenges,” he told CNA.
The Rocket Force has been at the heart of an ongoing anti-corruption campaign targeting the military since last year, as part of a wider long-running graft crackdown enacted by President Xi in 2012.
Wei Fenghe, a former defence minister who used to head the elite unit, has vanished from the radar, while his successor Li Shangfu was abruptly removed in October last year after also disappearing for months. 
Both men were expelled from China’s Communist Party in June for “serious violations of discipline”, a euphemism for corruption, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
Nine PLA generals, including five past or serving leading officials of the Rocket Force, were removed from China’s top legislature late last year.
Dr Newsham from the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies agrees that the PLA may be conducting a long-range missile test publicly to demonstrate that the Rocket Force is now “more ready than ever”.
“This act underscores China’s priorities, particularly its focus on missile capability. The leadership places a high importance on the Rocket Force, so it’s not surprising that they feel the need to showcase its renewed prowess,” he said.
Analysts say China’s latest ICBM launch risks heightening already elevated tensions in the region and with the West, noting that it’s unclear exactly how many countries were notified beforehand about the plan, and to what extent.
A report by Xinhua on Wednesday on the launch cited the defence ministry as saying that China notified “relevant countries” in advance. It did not elaborate on the missile path or where exactly in the “high seas of the Pacific Ocean” it fell.
Beijing did not specify exactly which nations it informed, and whether it was specifically mentioned an ICBM launch would be carried out. Japan, for one, has said it did not receive any advance notice that China would be conducting an ICBM test-firing.
“There was no prior notice from the Chinese side regarding the ICBM launch,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi on Wednesday.
However, a Japan Coast Guard official noted that on Monday (Sep 23), China had issued a navigation warning for “space debris” in three zones: The South China Sea, the Pacific north of the Philippines’ Luzon Island, and the South Pacific, all for Wednesday.
Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand has described Beijing’s action as “an unwelcome and concerning development”, while Australia said it was seeking an explanation from China.
The Pentagon has confirmed that China provided advance notice of its ICBM test to the US.
“It’s a step in the right direction and helps prevent misperception or miscalculation,” US Defense Department spokesperson Sabrina Singh said on Wednesday, noting that the notification “serves as a practical confidence-building measure”.
“We hope these kinds of notifications continue,” she added.
Beijing severed high-level military communication with Washington in August 2022 following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. 
Dialogue resumed briefly this month when US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo and General Wu Yanan, commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Southern Theater Command, held a video conference.
During the call, Admiral Paparo emphasised that maintaining open lines of communication between senior military leaders is essential “to clarify intent and reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation,” according to a White House readout.
A statement from Chinese state media confirmed the talks, noting that the “two sides exchanged in-depth views on issues of common concern”.
“Effective information sharing prior to a launch is crucial for strategic stability and serves as an important confidence-building measure,” stressed Mr Thompson.
“This situation presents an opportunity for the US and China to consider developing such confidence-building measures to mitigate the risk of accidental conflicts.”